Predicting Season 11 Part 1 - The Top 13 Guys and VFTW picks

Finally! We are up to the voting rounds after a very painful early season. Now that we've seen performances from all 24 contestants (with a 25th TBA this Tuesday), it's time to break down the Top 24 and predict not only who will make it to the Top 12/13/whatever, but who is most likely to be a VFTW pick at any given point in the season.

Let's start with the guys. For argument's sake, I am going to base this on David Leathers being the 13th guy. Note that anyone else in the Top 13 guys would be a game-changer for the following predictions. I'm going to divide them into groups in order to break it all down, starting with:

The Fraubait: Phil Phillips, Colton Dixon, Adam Brock

The Tweenbait: Eben Franckewitz, David Leathers if he makes it, and possibly DeAndre Brackensick

The Cannon Fodder: Jeremy Rosado, Aaron Marcellus, Chase Likens, and DeAndre if the tweens don't take to him.

The VFTW: Heejun Han, Creighton Fraker, Reed Grimm, Joshua Ledet

Fraubait Phil, Colton, and Adam are more or less guaranteed to move on. They've been pimped quite a bit, and if you search around the other Idol boards, you'll see that Phil and Colton in particular are gaining cougar fans, and quickly, but Adam to a much lesser extent (sorry, cougars, he's married). However, TPTB are obviously investing a great deal in Adam, so he should make it, too.

Phil's chances of advancing: 100%. I mean, come on. He's a walking composite of the last four winners. This is probably this year's winner.

Chances of being an eventual VFTW pick: None until the at least the Top 3. If the finale is between him and a female non-VFTW pick, 99%.

Colton's chances of advancing: 90%

Chances of being an eventual VFTW pick: 10%, mid-to-late season. Sure, he looks like he's stuck a decapitated duck on his head, but he seems to have no sense of humor and takes himself way too seriously. BORING! We'd have to be towards the end of the season with no other people worth voting for, and that isn't too likely. Although us voting for him might make him cry. That could be worth it.

Adam's chances of advancing: 75% with votes alone, but 100% with the wildcard if he doesn't get the votes.

Chances of being an eventual VFTW pick: 5% next week, rising to 50% by mid-season. His over-the-top singing, Gokeyish looks, and trainwreck personality will have him blipping on our radar for quite some time. Us voting for him will DEFINITELY make him cry, because what doesn't?

Tweenbait David Leathers and Eben Franckewitz also have good chances of making it. Eben is the Justin Bieber clone TPTB want so badly, even though the only things Eben and Justin have in common are that they're both prepubescent and have the same haircut. The main difference is that Eben can sing (better) than Justin. David, if selected for the Top 25, has a bigger chance of faltering due to overconfidence, but due to the MJ connection he should be able to fool audiences for a few weeks or so.

Eben's chances of advancing: 85%. He should make it unless he has a juvenile freakout on stage.

Chances of being an eventual VFTW pick: 30% if still around towards Top 7-ish. I think he'll hold his own in a non-VFTW way, but teenage male contestants often find their way onto VFTW.

David's chances of advancing: 65% - Eben might take votes from him. Since he's the theoretical "second-chance" contestant, I'd say he has "no chance" of being wildcarded if he doesn't get enough votes.

Chances of being an eventual VFTW pick: 10% the first week if AND ONLY IF he goes all Asstro-obnoxious, rising to 50% by Top 10 and 80% by Top 7. Go ahead and halve those chances if he doesn't go Asstro-obnoxious. Talented kid, but green and with lots of trainwreck potential. VFTW victory?

DeAndre is sort of on the border between tweenbait and fodder. He does have some tweenbaitish qualities, but between the big hair and the falshitto, he's bound to turn off 90% of AI viewers no matter how well he sings. Then again, this is a show where Justin Guarini made runner up, but we live in a different time now, and he doesn't have Justin's inflated sense of confidence. Could go either way, but I don't see him fitting in anywhere.

DeAndre's chances of advancing: 40%, rising to 75% if wildcarded. The judges really seem to like him.

Chances of being an eventual VFTW pick: 5%. We won't really have the opportunity.

Now we come to our cannon fodders: Aaron, Jeremy, and Chase. These guys didn't get a whole lot of airtime, and what was shown wasn't particularly impressive. Still, by the law of averages, it's almost guaranteed that one of these three will advance.

Aaron's chances of advancing: 10%, 40% if wildcarded.

Chances of being an eventual VFTW pick: 10%. He won't last long, and there are far more VFTW singers this year.

Jeremy's chances of advancing: 30%. 70% if wildcarded, as the judges went out of their way tonight to tell him how much they like him. I think he will be the one out of these three to make it.

Chances of being an eventual VFTW pick: 30% if he makes the Top 13, rising by about 5% each week. He's overweight, awkward, and teenaged, so there's automatic VFTW potential there. We just haven't seen him be VFTW-entertaining yet.

Chase's chances of advancing: 20%. TPTB don't want two country singers in a row. They'll satisfy their Top 10 country quota with one of the three female country singers. He'll be thrown under the bus early on.

Chances of being an eventual VFTW pick: 10%. He'd have to really fuck up, and I don't see him making it on to our radar.

Last but not least, we have our VFTW singers: Heejun, Reed, Creighton, and Joshua. Yes, Joshua. Have you bitches seen him sing and dance yet? He's like Fantasia with a penis...wait, is that redundant? He's not an early or obvious pick, and I may be relatively alone in this opinion right now - but under the right circumstances, he could wind up in the right place at the right time and earn our love.

Joshua's chances of advancing: 30%

Chances of being an eventual VFTW pick: 15% next week, rising to 40% if he makes it to midseason.

Heejun's chances of advancing: 50%. 90% if wildcarded. I think we're finally going to have an Asian-American male finalist.

Chances of being an eventual VFTW pick: 40% the first week, and 50% any other given week. On one hand, there's the sarcasm and arm flapping. On the other hand, there are the boring ballads and a voice that's good, but not really stand-out. I don't see him sassing back at the judges, either. He could go either way.

Reed's chances of advancing: 60%, 100% if wildcarded. He's being overshadowed by the fraubait and might not get the votes, but if he's selected for a wildcard, take it as a sign that he's wanted on tour by TPTB.

Chances of being an eventual VFTW pick: 20% next week, rising by about 10% with each passing week. I think he's more of a second-choice pick at first due to pimpage, but I don't know how we won't vote for him if he's still around by, say, Top 8 or so.

Creighton's chances of advancing: 50%. He seems to be gaining a fan base, but like Reed, he's being overshadowed by the likes of Adam/Phil/Colton/Eben.

Chances of being an eventual VFTW pick: 30% the first week, rising to 50% if he makes the Top 10. Either he will be VFTW gold, or he will be inexplicably loved by the judges and frauen and eventually get on our nerves. It's too early to tell.

And that concludes Part I of my article. I'll be back tomorrow with Part II, where I predict where the Top 12 girls will wind up, and predict a possible Top 13 contestant list.