Predicting Season 11 Part 3 - The Top 13

Now that this year's Top 13 have been determined, it's time to speculate on who is going to last and who isn't going to last. Up until now I've been saying "Phillip is the winner. Give him the crown", but this may not necessarily be the case, despite American Idol's track record...on the other hand, he could easily win. Now, I'm going to break it down in a more scientific manner to see who has potential to win.

I find it to be kind of useless to predict the exact elimination order, even though that's exactly what I'm about to do (because I still have fun doing it once every season). Based on history, even chosen ones aren't safe for more than the first few weeks (more on that later), and even though I'm compiling a Top 13 list, even one person leaving early or staying late would change the entire game.  None of this is arbitrary, and again, even if I'm off by one person, it changes the entire dynamic. With that said. this is for entertainment purposes only.

I've broken the Top 13 down into three groups - Cannon Fodder, Middle-Packers, and Chosen Ones.

Cannon Fodder: DeAndre, Erika, Jeremy

Middle-Packers: Joshua, Jermaine, Heejun, Hollie, Skylar

(Borderline MP/TCO: Shannon)

Chosen Ones: Phillip, Colton, Jessica, Elise

Not to say that all of the cannon fodder will leave first, or that the chosen ones will be the last ones standing. We all know better. Here is a partial list of previous chosen ones who left before the Top 5:

Season 10 - Pia Toscano (9th)

Season 9 - No real shockers

Season 7 - Michael Johns (8th), Carly Smithson (6th)

Season 6 - No real shockers

Season 5 - Mandisa (9th)

Season 4 - Constantine (6th) (haha!)

Season 3 - Jennifer Hudson (7th)

...and cannon fodder that simply just wouldn't leave.

Season 10 - Stefano Langone (7th)

Season 9 - the entire cast save for Crystal

Season 8 - Matt Giraud (5th)

Season 7 - Kristy Lee Cook (7th), Syesha Mercado (3rd)

Season 6 - Haley Scarnato (8th), Sanjaya (7th)

Season 5 - Bucky Covington (8th)

Season 4 - Anthony Federov (4th)

Season 3 - John Stevens (6th)

With this in mind, at least one of the cannon fodders should breeze into the Top 10. I think it will be Jeremy, as the judges and producers keep propping him up just enough so that he should last a few weeks. Erika will probably be the first or second person to go, as well as DeAndre, unless he becomes the VFTW pick and gains enough votes that way. Given our history, I'd say there is a 30% chance we could push DeAndre into the Top 10, but for now I'll go with the odds and shitcan him early.

So that leaves a Top 10 with Jeremy, but without Erika or DeAndre. So where do their votes go?

Erika probably doesn't have enough votes to make a difference, but the few votes that would have gone to her would likely go to Elise. DeAndre's votes will be split between Jeremy and whoever our next pick would be (and Jeremy isn't completely out of the realm of possibility as a future pick). A few votes may go to Joshua as well. I would have to say that if there was a middle-packer to go first, it would be Jermaine. I love the guy, but his propping-up as the mystery semifinalist will only take him so far.

Jermaine is an R&B singer, and I think his votes would mainly go to Joshua as a result, even though they are two very different singers. The rest would go to Jeremy (for the nice, sweet, fat guy vote), propping him up a little further.

Then, it's going to be time to lose some middle-pack contestants. Shannon and Hollie are sure to split votes - both are blond, ballad-singning teenagers who love having emotional breakdowns on stage. One of these girls will last long while the other will be gone early. I'll say Hollie for now, as Shannon is going to get all the people who want the next Jordin Sparks + the fundie-Christian vote (there's some overlap there, of course). So when Hollie goes too soon for lack of a fan base despite a fantastic voice, Shannon gets most of her votes, with a handful going to Jessica, protecting both girls from an early shocker elimination in the immediate future.

I see Heejun going next. His shtick is already getting tired, and as a singer he's underwhelming. I could see the producers finally getting sick of his comic-relief ass and throwing him under the bus quickly. He'll make the tour, but definitely not the top rungs of the contest. His votes will go to Phillip, since they're BFFs and all.

That leaves us with eight contestants - Jeremy, Shannon, Phillip, Colton, Elise, Skylar, Jessica, and Joshua. This is the point where Jeremy will stick out like a sore thumb and get shitcanned. People voting for Jeremy are voting for the 'nice guy', so it's hard to say where is votes will go. Some will undoubtedly go to Joshua, who is also a teenager, and seemingly a very nice guy as well. The rest will be split among the rest of the male singers.

I think this is when we may get our shocker chosen-one elimination. Out of who is left, it won't be Phillip - he's picked up too many votes from Heejun. Colton has too much fan momentum. It will probably be Elise or Jessica - and I'm thinking Jessica. She just doesn't seem ready based on what we've seen so far. Her votes will go right to Shannon.

As the playing field becomes clearer, I think we'll lose Joshua and Skylar next - in what order doesn't really matter. Skylar's shout out to the Lord means that some of her votes should go to Shannon and Colton. Joshua's votes will be split between everyone, as he's the last soul singer standing.

So our theoretical top four is: Phillip, Colton, Shannon, and Elise. Elise has mad talent, but I don't see much power-voters going for her. The casual-viewer vote will only take her this far. Her votes will go to whoever has proven themselves as the best singer at this point, and who that will be remains to be seen.

Therefore, the Top 3 should be Phillip, Colton, and Shannon, with any of these three as the possible winner. I don't know how strong the fundie vote will be this year. If it's strong, Colton and Shannon could cancel each other out, and we'll lose one of them next. If it's weak, then not only is it anyone's game, but we may even see the Top 3 populated with people other than Colton or Shannon. But just for fun, I'll predict that the F2 will be Phillip and Shannon. Shannon could win if the producers decide to pull out all the stops to throw Phillip under the bus. Then AI fans can be taken back to the days when a female could win. If it doesn't happen this year, AI may as well throw in the towel for good. So while I think Phillip will win wihout any dirty pool on the part of the producers, I totally expect dirty pool to allow a girl to win for the first time in five years.

In conclusion, the possible elimination order is as follows:

13) Erika

12) DeAndre

11) Jermaine

10) Hollie

9) Heejun

8) Jeremy

7) Jessica

6) Joshua

5) Skylar

4) Elise

3) Colton

2) Phillip

1) Shannon

I also predict that the order of VFTW picks will be (and this is REALLY just for fun): DeAndre, Jermaine, Jeremy, Skylar, Phillip (WGWG5 FTW!).

Who do you think will be the first to go? Join the VFTW Season 11 Elimination Pool and see how well you predict the elimination order.

UPDATE: It appears that I forgot about the save. (thanks, Frenchie Fry!) I agree with FF, and believe if the save was to be used, it could be used on Hollie. That could mean either a reversal of Hollie and Shannon's fortunes, or very little at all. I am hoping they drop the save this year, but I doubt it.