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| LeslieHuntFTW |
 Posted: Tue Feb 03, 2009 1:20 pm |
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Whatevia
Joined: 03 Feb 2009
Posts: 28
Location: Hollyweird
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| Last year someone started a thread on this. My friend's brother was betting on the show and there was some helpful information. |
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| LeslieHuntFTW |
| Posted: Tue Feb 03, 2009 1:21 pm |
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Whatevia
Joined: 03 Feb 2009
Posts: 28
Location: Hollyweird
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Only thing I've seen so far, I think this is the guy that worked for some casino in Las Vegas.
Salt Lake Independent Press
Idol Oddsmaker Taps Corkrey as Early Favorite
Last year precocious David Archuleta narrowly missed winning American Idol. If the early prognostications of a retired Las Vegas bookmaker and self-proclaimed Idol expert are correct, the Beehive state will get its revenge in the form of golden-voiced Megan Corkrey. Corkrey leads a strong group of contenders in what should be one of the most competitive years yet.
Last year’s winner David Cook opened at 40-1 odds (meaning for every $1 you bet you would win $40), but Doberman continually lowered his odds until anointing him the favorite with seven weeks to go. Conventional wisdom had Utah’s own David Archuleta running away with the title and in fact, Archuleta was the second choice in opening odds last season (Carly Smithson, the eventual 6th place finished, was the opening favorite). Two years ago, Doberman opened Jordin Sparks as the betting favorite prior to the show’s telecast and she went on to score an upset victory over career backup singer Melinda Doolittle and beat-boxer Blake Lewis.
Recently we sat down with a former Las Vegas bookmaker, known in cyberspace as the Green Doberman. Under his nom de plume he has achieved mild notoriety in the cyber world for his American Idol handicapping acumen and his accurate prognostication of winners early in the show. The Doberman, as he is called by friends and family, sets the odds for Idol contenders and adjusts them periodically as the show continues.
SLIP: Mr. Doberman, how do you come up with the odds for the contestants?
GD: A lot of legwork is involved, researching various website, watching endless YouTube videos and listening to MySpace songs. I liken it to a coach looking at game film to scout recruits. My background is in setting odds and I have a love for music with an ear for a talented artist.
SLIP: Do you have a background in the music industry?
GD: LOL, no. I wish I could sing and I’d love to be a rock star, but the truth is when I’m singing in the shower the soap and shampoo have to ask me to stop I am so bad. I do have a few friends in the music industry and grew up listening to all kinds of bands and attending concerts so I’ve developed a bit of acumen in sorting the good and bad singers out.
SLIP: Have you watched the show since the beginning?
GD: To be honest, I did not see any of the first two seasons of the show. I’ve since watched them on reruns. I did not have much of an interest in it until I had a friend who was on Season 3 and discovered you could bet on it online. Since then I’ve correctly handicapped every winner of the show. Some seasons take longer than others to figure out who will win.
SLIP: Can a person make a bet on the show in a casino?
GD: No, it is illegal to bet on it in Las Vegas. I used to put up a lot of odds on entertainment stuff like Idol, the Nathan’s hot dog eating contest, and Wrestlemania. The catch is the odds are there for entertainment purposes only. They are just as a conversation piece and advertising for the book. I had a lady very upset one year because we would not let her bet on Kobayashi in the hot dog contest. She didn’t understand that we couldn’t take the bet. You can bet on it offshore at various sites, however.
SLIP: What do you think of those sites such as “Vote For the Worst” that poke fun at the show or dig up dirt on the contestants?
GD: I enjoy that site and there is a lot of good information on there. In the beginning the premise of the show was supposedly about the purity of finding a great undiscovered talent. As the years go by they have gotten completely away from that premise and made it a more scripted reality-type show with professionals. The fact sites such as VFTW expose this is, in my opinion, doing a service to the public that is getting the wool pulled over their eyes. As long as the producers are going to play dirty pool, they should realize in this day and age of the Internet people are going to find hidden information out and keep them in check.
SLIP: You have Utah’s own Megan Corkrey as the favorite. Do you think she will win?
GD: It is too early to tell. A lot goes into the show and performers can rise and fall as the weeks go by. There are about 15 people I think that could win depending how they are presented and how they perform. Remember the show is not about singing necessarily it is about getting the most votes. Having watched and listened to her I think Megan will have a wide appeal and has something special that could make people vote for her. It will be interesting to see how she progesses. Personally, I think a complete unknown so far will win it. His name is Steven Fowler. I’m sure we’ll see more of him in weeks to come.
SLIP: So can you provide us with the first look at your odds this year.
GD: Sure. Despite the fact there are spoilers out there as to who made the finals. I placed odds on 144 Hollywood finalists and a field (anyone not listed). There is a wildcard round this year, so conceivably all the contestant could still be alive as it is not unprecedented to bring a cut contestant back.
2009 American Idol Odds:
Adam Lambert 10
AJ Neaher 150
Alan Jackson 100
Alex Wagner-Trugman 50
Alexander Green 150
Alexis Grace 40
Allison Barron 125
Allison Iraheta 50
Angela Martin 60
Anna Kaelin 150
Anne-Marie Boskovich 8
Anoop Desai 20
Antonio Magana 150
Arianna Afsar 15
Asa Barnes 75
Ashley Anderson 75
Ashley Hollister 100
Ashley Mendez 100
Asijah Adolph 150
Aubrey Logan 150
Audrey-Kate Geiger 100
Austin Cisneros 100
Brent Keith Smith 15
Brianna Horne 150
Brianna Quijada 100
Bryan Peterson 150
Casey Carlson 12
Chris Chatman 100
Chris Medina 150
Cody Sheldon 60
Damaris Rivera 100
Danielle Roundtree 75
Danny Gokey 8
David Gowryluk 150
David Osmond 100
Deanna Brown 75
Dennis Brigham 500
Derek Drake 100
Derik Lavers 150
Devin Bodkin 150
Devon Baldwin 60
Dominick “Nick” Lynch 50
Dominque Brown 150
Eloni Yawn 200
Emily Wynne-Hughes 200
Erika Wesley 150
Felicia Barton 50
Frankie Jordan 50
Imari Molifua 100
India Morrison 250
JB Ahfua 100
Jackie Mendez 150
Jackie Midkiff 150
Jackie Tohn 25
Jamar Rogers 75
James Harris 150
James Jeannetty 150
Jasmine Murray 20
Jason Rosario 150
Jeanine Vailes 15
Jenn Korbee 100
Jennifer Samoranos 50
Jesse Langseth 25
Jesse McCullagh 75
Jessica Furney 75
Jessie Lawrence 150
Jesus Valenzuela 75
Joanna Pacitti 10
John Twiford 75
Jorge Nunez-Mendez 12
Joseph Faifili 150
Josh Cloud 150
Joshua Tryon 150
Joshua Ulloa 150
Ju’not Joyner 40
Julicia Kelly 150
Julissa Veloz 100
Justin Williams 75
Kai Kalama 15
Katrina Darrell 500
Kaylan Loyd 150
Kechelle Whitney 150
Kellye Vetter 150
Kendall Beard 7
Kennny Hoffpauer 60
Kris Allen 10
Kristen McNamara 30
Lacey Brown 75
Lauren Barnes 150
Leneshe Young 60
Lexi Lawson 100
Lil Rounds 10
Lindsey Stewart 150
Mallory Logue 150
Margo May 100
Markese Morris 75
Maryn Azoff 150
Matt Breitzke 20
Matt Giraud 50
Matthew Corkey 125
Megan Bohls 125
Megan Corkrey 5
Melinda Camille 75
Michael Castro 60
Michael Sarver 40
Michael Tristan 75
Mishavonna Henson 12
Monique Garcia-Torres 100
Moorea Masa 150
Morgan McOwen 150
Muna Hiluf 250
Nancy Wilson 150
Nathaniel Asake 150
Nate Marshall 40
Nena Lockheart 150
Nick Hendrix 25
Nick Mitchell 150
Otto Malone 75
Patricia Lewis Roman 150
Perrie Cataldo 500
Phoebe Ryan 75
Raquel Houghton 75
Reggi Beasley 100
Ricky Braddy 30
Rose Flack 60
Ryan Johnson 75
Ryan Pinkston 150
Scott Macintyre 8
Sharon Wilbur 100
Shauntell Campos 250
Shelby Swartwood 250
Shera Lawrence 150
Stephanie Rashea-Britt 500
Stephen Fowler 10
Steven Darden 150
Stevie Wright 15
T.K. Hash 75
Tasha Pummill-Valentine 100
Tatiana Nicole del Toro 50
Taylor Vaifanua 20
Tom Korbee 150
Tryphaena Nimmons 250
Von Smith 9
Yazmine Esparza 500
Field (anyone not listed) 50
American Idol can be seen on KSTU Fox 13.
For more info please see: www.votefortheworst.com
Green Doberman American Idol blog can be found at: www.forums.eog.com |
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| insaneinthesfv |
| Posted: Tue Feb 03, 2009 1:36 pm |
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Moderator
Joined: 01 Feb 2007
Posts: 16773
Location: Jedwardshire, UK
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| Are they not aware that the Top 36 has been spoiled? |
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| LeslieHuntFTW |
| Posted: Tue Feb 03, 2009 1:41 pm |
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Whatevia
Joined: 03 Feb 2009
Posts: 28
Location: Hollyweird
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SLIP: So can you provide us with the first look at your odds this year.
GD: Sure. Despite the fact there are spoilers out there as to who made the finals. I placed odds on 144 Hollywood finalists and a field (anyone not listed). There is a wildcard round this year, so conceivably all the contestant could still be alive as it is not unprecedented to bring a cut contestant back.
According to this, it seems like the guy doing them knows but put odds everyone. If you look at them, you'll see the top 36 has lower odds as well. Maybe it was more for a mainstream type thing. |
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| insaneinthesfv |
| Posted: Tue Feb 03, 2009 1:43 pm |
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Moderator
Joined: 01 Feb 2007
Posts: 16773
Location: Jedwardshire, UK
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| AH, thank you. As a rule of thumb, people will not read extremely long articles, just FYI. |
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| JohnnyDrama |
| Posted: Tue Feb 03, 2009 1:48 pm |
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PaPa Fuck B**bs
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 2732
Location: Locked in a thread! Get me out of here!!
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Ummmmm I didn't.. saw Insane on the thread so I peaked. I will bet this! Who ever wins will be no....  |
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| insaneinthesfv |
| Posted: Tue Feb 03, 2009 1:49 pm |
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Moderator
Joined: 01 Feb 2007
Posts: 16773
Location: Jedwardshire, UK
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I like that Cook was 40/1 at this time last year and that Nate is currently 40/1.  |
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| Slacking |
| Posted: Tue Feb 03, 2009 1:51 pm |
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I Run This Joint!
Joined: 20 May 2006
Posts: 6531
Location: Los Estados Unidos
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insaneinthesfv wrote: Are they not aware that the Top 36 has been spoiled?
I think they do, because those in the top 36 seem to have better odds than those who are not. |
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| JohnnyDrama |
| Posted: Tue Feb 03, 2009 1:54 pm |
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PaPa Fuck B**bs
Joined: 09 Mar 2008
Posts: 2732
Location: Locked in a thread! Get me out of here!!
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Quote:
I think they do, because those in the top 36 seem to have better odds than those who are not.
Idiots who do not read this site and bet the long odds are known as "Dead Money"! |
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| AllThatJazz |
| Posted: Tue Feb 03, 2009 4:20 pm |
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Boomquisha
Joined: 06 Mar 2008
Posts: 2650
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Besides the great nom de plume, Green Doberman has my support for this
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| maxhate |
| Posted: Tue Feb 03, 2009 5:03 pm |
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Fake Rocker w/ Goat Vibrato
Joined: 02 Feb 2009
Posts: 14
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| I wish I lived in the UK so I could hit the bookies this evening and lay a 3 person teaser. 100 could win you 40-100k if you hit it right for the top three. Online gambling is a right we should all have. Come on Obama..overturn that shit and get neteller back online. |
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| scaryboard |
| Posted: Tue Feb 03, 2009 6:58 pm |
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Bitch Macdonald
Joined: 16 Nov 2006
Posts: 262
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| LeslieHuntFTW |
| Posted: Wed Feb 04, 2009 1:37 pm |
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Whatevia
Joined: 03 Feb 2009
Posts: 28
Location: Hollyweird
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I emailed the guy doing the odds this morning and was surprised to see I had a quick reply this afternoon. Here is the cut and paste of it.
Leslie,
Regarding the finalist odds question, I made two sets of odds. One included all (or most) of the Hollywood contestants and the other included just the finalists (or spoiler list). In the article you referenced, I gave the interview both lists and she indicated she would likely not use the spoiler. A lot of the public is not aware that the show is taped ahead of time and are naive to the spoilers out there. Thus, I try not to "spoil their fun" so to speak.
I would be happy to provide you with the finalist odds list, but please keep it in places that are catered to spoilers or viewers wanting to know. The site I post most of my stuff at(eog.com) has two separate threads, one with spoilers and one without, so that people can choose to read/or not read info ahead of time.
Hope you enjoy the show and good luck if you decide to bet on it.
Best of luck,
Mike
GreenDoberman
2009 American Idol- Season 9 Finalists
Odds current as of 2-3-09:
Adam Lambert 10-1 Alexis Grace 40-1
Alex Wagner-Trugman 50-1 Alison Iraheta 50-1
Anoop Desai 20-1 Anne Marie Boskovich 8-1
Brent Keith Smith 15-1 Arianna Afsar 15-1
Danny Gokey 8-1 Casey Carlson 12-1
Jorge Nunez Mendez 12-1 Jackie Tohn 25-1
Ju’not Joyner 40-1 Jasmine Murray 20-1
Kai Kalama 15-1 Jeanine Vailes 15-1
Kris Allen 10-1 Jesse Langseth 25-1
Matt Breitzke 20-1 Joanna Pacitti 10-1
Matt Giraud 50-1 Kendall Beard 7-1
Michael Sarver 35-1 Kristen McNamara 30-1
Nate Marshall 40-1 Lil Rounds 10-1
Nick Hendrix Western 25-1 Megan Corkrey 5-1
Ricky Braddy 30-1 Mishavonna Henson 12-1
Scott McIntyre 8-1 Stevie Wright 15-1
Stephen Fowler 10-1 Tatiana Nicole del Toro 50-1
Von Smith 9-1 Taylor Vaifanua 20-1
Field 100-1 |
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| IdolInTheSky |
| Posted: Wed Feb 04, 2009 1:44 pm |
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8 Hurricanes Later
Joined: 08 Jan 2009
Posts: 96
Location: Down here making Ryan feel taller
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LeslieHuntFTW wrote: Nick Hendrix Western 25-1
So the oddsmaker thinks Nick Western is Nick Hendrix.
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| mariposa |
| Posted: Wed Feb 04, 2009 2:59 pm |
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Carlyplant
Joined: 01 Dec 2008
Posts: 35
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Quote: So the oddsmaker thinks Nick Western is Nick Hendrix.
Crap. |
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| LeslieHuntFTW |
| Posted: Thu Feb 05, 2009 2:04 pm |
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Whatevia
Joined: 03 Feb 2009
Posts: 28
Location: Hollyweird
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Looks like he was wrong about Nick.  |
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| 4murtard |
| Posted: Thu Feb 05, 2009 2:14 pm |
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Amy Davis
Joined: 18 Jan 2009
Posts: 106
Location: Bay Area
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Megan and Kendall are the favorites.  |
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| Mr. Smith |
| Posted: Thu Feb 05, 2009 3:37 pm |
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Annoying Screechy Diva
Joined: 22 Feb 2008
Posts: 6
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This bookie guy seems like a drunken, angry Kady-Hating psycopath.
edit- was just joking
relax |
Last edited by Mr. Smith on Fri Feb 06, 2009 1:47 am; edited 1 time in total |
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| scaryboard |
| Posted: Thu Feb 05, 2009 6:07 pm |
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Bitch Macdonald
Joined: 16 Nov 2006
Posts: 262
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If this is the same Mr. Smith that I know, he is/was a Kady Malloy tard and knows Green Doberman from therx.com
I personally think they are good guys and don't see why either of them would come here to post nonsense.
Vodka? Scotch? Beer? If they are whom they say they are then they are cool just maybe not acclimated to this site. |
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| Mysterioso |
| Posted: Fri Feb 06, 2009 8:07 am |
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CUNT
Joined: 18 Apr 2007
Posts: 5559
Location: In The Aether
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LeslieHuntFTW re: your article you posted earlier.
Always include a link when you quote an article, as there does not seem to be any confirmation of that article you posted. I can't find "Salt Lake Independent Press" either. Even the blog link at the end of the article is dead. |
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