Each week this season sinks below season 6 in terms of BORING. Tim as the VFTW pick is the only reason I'm still watching. I bet Crystal's flop winner single is being typed up by Dogface as I type. I hope Tim makes it to at least the Idol Gives Back. I hate this season more than 2 and 6. Sooo painfully boring.

bobsyouruncle:

You seem to think there some correlation between how well (technically) the contestants sing and who lands in the bottom three. Have you watched this show before? The vote system is a popularity contest - biased toward contestants who can develop a fan base that is not only of a certain size, but a certain dedication and thus will make repeat votes over the two hour period. If I liked Crystal, I might vote for her five times. But every white school child in CT is voting for Katie Stevens from the moment the lines open to the moment they close.

So eliminations are about who has the most rabid fan base. Katie, alas has a huge fan base: she's third on DialIdol which doesn't measure cell or text traffic.

The bottom trio will be among Aaron, Andrew, Michael and Tim. Tim could be safe, or he could go home. Tim has VFTW and the teeth and abs crowd. Aaron has the Bieber fans and the frauen. Andrew has the internet ghosts that show up every keep from another dimension and keep his butt safe. Mike has all the people who watch Idol because they like really bad soul music. DialIdol has Mike in fourth.

If the voting on this show made any sense, Aaron or Andrew would be going home because they are mediocre and boring. Mike would last another week because he's not named Aaron or Andrew. Tim would stay since so many people are in on the joke now, he's doing a great job entertaining America. But the voting doesn't make any sense. Aaron got ripped by the judges (long and winding song) which will motivate his base to battle like the last Nippon on Iwo Jima. Which should make Andrew the most likely target since he was bad but the judges didn't cut him down. Except he appears to be supported by magic, so why would that change? Leaving Mike or Tim as potential 'surprize' eliminations.

I'm thinking the following scenario has only a small chance of occurring, but until this week the odds were infinitesmal: TPTB have noticed how much pub Timmey has been getting the show, and how that pub has shifted from anger to bemusement. They have evidence he's helping sell tickets to the tour, and the tracking ratings dip up when he sings because - one way or the other people want to see him. They conclude that - compared to several remaining contestants, he's 'good TV.' So he gets the lowest vote total, and the judges rescue him with the save, creating the biggest controversy in AI history and massive ratings next week. If it happens, remember you heard it here first. If not, we'll don't blame a guy for wishful thinking.

A request for everyone:

Can we stop all speculation about who might be the next pick, or what other contestants might have this or that Worsterness somewhere inside? Tim Urban is this site's greatest champion. (Who among you dared imagine another would rise to the level of the great legend Sanjaya?) While Tim Urban stands, there should be no mention of any Picks but him. They are heresy! They weaken our cause! They prick at Tim's courageous heart with thorns of negativity! Shame on your speculations! If the time comes, then it will be time.

A question for the funnystone:

Why is your Tim avatar so dark?

They also don't measure landline calls that aren't placed with their software, right? That is why I don't look at their predictions. They are about as accurate as Kerry Kolsch's "research".

Personally I hope Katie leaves...she's a shallow, plastic little girl who has already let the "fame" get to her head. Unfortunately, she's almost definitely safe. So I guess Aaron.

Pageant Bot is safe. She might be in the Bottom 3, but she's safe. The fake hick will be eliminated tonight.

I want Andrew to be excused from participation because I believe his mom might FREAK. I just think that might be fun to watch.

realistically I think it will be between Aaron and Andrew. With Tim just scraping through.

however, in my dream world I really hope FUGLEE would leave. His fantards are beyond unbelivable... Most of them seem to be the same tards who liked Gokey, which explains a lot...

(I posted this earlier on the Dial Idol thread -- figures have been updated. It's worse for Fugcia and better for Tim than just 20 minutes ago.)

The Intrade prediction market site has the Fugcia-going-home contract at 42 (last traded value) and overwhelmingly high volume (i.e. you can pay $42 for a contract that pays you $100 if he does go home and $0 if he stays). Volume is 656.

Next-highest-price contract is Aaron at 35.5, followed by Tim at 15. But the volume on these are much lower--36 for Aaron and 14 for Tim.

Four other Idols have volumes on the same order of magnitude as Aaron and Tim. Last traded values: Siobhan 13, Katie 10, Michael 9, Lee 4.

Crystal and Casey have no volume at all.

Prediction markets have a history of relative accuracy. I wonder if the Idols follow Intrade as much as they follow VFTW.

www.intrade.com, go to Entertainment > American Idol for the contracts.

I read that as "I want Andrew to be executed."

I am hoping and praying for the third damned week now that Fuggy goes home. He truly sucks and is too fucking ugly to be on my TV.