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Exactly. Look - if the record producers of the world were GOOD at predicting who would be a hit and who wouldn't, then you wouldn't have so many flops (like Carly Hennessy's cd). The fact is, they all THINK they can "call it", because they DO sometimes get it right and pick winners. Chances are that in the earlier years of Idol, the producers started with 12 "unknowns" who all had the tools to be good, Watched how the public responded to them then picked the 2-3 they thought would sell the most pop records and "Groomed" those contestants, Then eventually picked the "One" they thought was most marketable - and cast the others aside. (That would explain Clay getting an early push, only to see Ruben become the focus of the producers' attention in the final weeks) Two years ago, the guy who captivated the audience was in fact a competent singer, but was NOT one of the selected few and was NOT particularly marketable - but he WAS by far the most entertaining. I actually bought a ticket for a Taylor Hicks concert recently. It WAS "entertaining" - but the only "Good" parts of the show were his covers of others hits - so (like most other people) I have ZERO interest in buying a Taylor Hicks CD. THUS - the entire purpose of Idol (to sell records) was defeated. Last year, to avoid another "Taylor Hicks" they included only a couple contestants who actually could sing, and several "bit players" who they expected to get voted off quickly. BUT (as we all know) the guy who captivated the audience was NOT one of the few competent singers but instead was one of the "bit players". So when Sanjaya eventually HAD to be voted off due to obvious limitations in his ability - the rest of the show was a lifeless dud. This year, to avoid another Sanjaya - rather than go back to the original design of picking 12 decent but "undiscovered" singers, they decided to "stack the deck" with several "known quantities" - i.e. singers with decent chops who had cut albums, but didn't have commercial success. Basically every contestant in the final 8-9 has already released one or more albums, or appeared on (or even won) another TV talent show. The only exception being Jason (but he has previously worked as an actor on an MTV reality show). So basically EVERYONE left on the show this year has some level of a professional career (and the insider industry contacts that come with it) before Idol's season even started. If you look at the show so far, its pretty clear what contestants were cast in what roles, and who the producers identifed as the prefered winners. Amanda - the Rocker girl Kristy - the country girl David H - the good looking guy (which backfired when he was outed as a gay stripper) Chikeze - the black guy Syesha - the black girl (notice that since there were so many black contestants at the late stages last year, they stacked the deck with only two blacks to make sure it didn't happen again! pretty sad!!!) Ramielle - the ethnic girl Jason - the goofy stoner guy David C. - the rocker guy (i.e. daughtry clone) Michael - Targeted "final 4" contestant - long time professional with past recording experience - backfired when America got sick of him. Brooke - Targeted "final 4" contestant - long time professional with past recording experience - still in the hunt Carly - Targeted "final 4" contestant - long time professional with past recording experience - still in the hunt David A. - Targeted "final 4" contestant - long time professional with past experience (winning Star Search) - still in the hunt.
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